Key Takeaways:
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A lack of action in the build up to a crisis is a common trend throughout human history. It's natural to want to believe things will turn out okay and due to this bias we tend to be slow to pick up on the warning signs that we are heading for trouble (whether that's in regards to a failing business, the financial crash or climate change)
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By reflecting on this trend and actively looking to counter this bias, it must be possible to accelerate climate action. There must be a solution to this fundamental human issue.
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The most interesting module I took at University looked at the causes of the 2009 financial crash. This fell under a new and exciting field called "behavioural economics", which looks at how psychological, emotional, cultural and social factors impact the economic decisions taken by individuals and institutions.
For the first two years at Uni it was baffling that most of what we learnt had the baseline assumption that humans always make rational decisions. I make irrational decisions the whole time, so I was surprised to learn that modern day economics was still failing to adequately consider irrational human behaviour in economic models.
To summarise the module... the conclusion was that human behaviour was the key driver of the financial crash. The bankers, mortgage brokers and others involved did not knowingly and consciously drive the economy to breaking point, but they consistently overlooked the warning signs and subconsciously they didn’t want to believe the “good times” were coming to an end (most people who said otherwise were ostracised or ignored). They were all making lots of money, so why would they? I don’t think anyone intended for things to end up as they did and had I been in their shoes I may have made the same mistakes. But I do think they are human and prone to the same bias that most of us are.
If you look back at some of the biggest disasters in human history, that weren't caused by nature, a lack of action in the build up is one of the primary reasons they ended up being so catastrophic. And the primary driver behind that lack of action is people’s desire not to believe they’re heading for trouble. The fall of Rome and the Second World War are good examples where, had action been taken sooner, complete disaster could have been avoided.
I work in business restructuring and we see a similar thing. So many companies put through insolvency could have been saved had action been taken sooner. In a recent survey of CEOs that had been through insolvency their number one regret was denial.
I think on some level most of us are aware of this issue. You see it play out in some of our favourite novels. The Ministry of Magics' continued denial of Voldemort’s return as an example, with this exchange between Dumbledore and Cornelius Fudge highlighting the point:
Dumbledore: “Cornelius, I implore you to see reason, the evidence that the Dark Lord has returned is incontrovertible”
Fudge (angrily): “He’s... not... back”
This same thing is happening currently with governments all around the world. Although it doesn’t generally manifest in the form of outright climate change denial (because the science is clear and we can see it happening all around us), it does manifest in the denial of the severity of this issue and of the unprecedented changes we must make to safeguard our future.
The investment bankers, the CEOs, the world leaders I’ve talked about are, on the whole, very intelligent people, yet they’re all prone to this same bias. So people shouldn’t be made to feel stupid for not wanting to believe this issue is as serious as it is.
Disinterest and sometimes even anger are common responses to the topic of climate change. We should all be encouraged to question our emotional response to this subject. To ask ourselves why we want to disengage? Why we feel angry? Why, when nearly every scientist in the world is telling us that this is going to be a primary determining factor in their future, or at least their children’s future, why we aren't more curious about this subject?
If there’s one thing I beg of you, take this seriously, as a minimum look into it. Please please, don’t be a Cornelius Fudge of climate change (or “climate fudger”). If it’s not already, question why learning more about this issue isn’t high on your list of priorities.
The biggest challenge with climate change, in my opinion, is getting enough people to take this seriously and to take action, when they don’t want to believe we're heading for trouble. This is what we do... but there has to be a way to fix it.
For the first two years at Uni it was baffling that most of what we learnt had the baseline assumption that humans always make rational decisions. I make irrational decisions the whole time, so I was surprised to learn that modern day economics was still failing to adequately consider irrational human behaviour in economic models.
To summarise the module... the conclusion was that human behaviour was the key driver of the financial crash. The bankers, mortgage brokers and others involved did not knowingly and consciously drive the economy to breaking point, but they consistently overlooked the warning signs and subconsciously they didn’t want to believe the “good times” were coming to an end (most people who said otherwise were ostracised or ignored). They were all making lots of money, so why would they? I don’t think anyone intended for things to end up as they did and had I been in their shoes I may have made the same mistakes. But I do think they are human and prone to the same bias that most of us are.
If you look back at some of the biggest disasters in human history, that weren't caused by nature, a lack of action in the build up is one of the primary reasons they ended up being so catastrophic. And the primary driver behind that lack of action is people’s desire not to believe they’re heading for trouble. The fall of Rome and the Second World War are good examples where, had action been taken sooner, complete disaster could have been avoided.
I work in business restructuring and we see a similar thing. So many companies put through insolvency could have been saved had action been taken sooner. In a recent survey of CEOs that had been through insolvency their number one regret was denial.
I think on some level most of us are aware of this issue. You see it play out in some of our favourite novels. The Ministry of Magics' continued denial of Voldemort’s return as an example, with this exchange between Dumbledore and Cornelius Fudge highlighting the point:
Dumbledore: “Cornelius, I implore you to see reason, the evidence that the Dark Lord has returned is incontrovertible”
Fudge (angrily): “He’s... not... back”
This same thing is happening currently with governments all around the world. Although it doesn’t generally manifest in the form of outright climate change denial (because the science is clear and we can see it happening all around us), it does manifest in the denial of the severity of this issue and of the unprecedented changes we must make to safeguard our future.
The investment bankers, the CEOs, the world leaders I’ve talked about are, on the whole, very intelligent people, yet they’re all prone to this same bias. So people shouldn’t be made to feel stupid for not wanting to believe this issue is as serious as it is.
Disinterest and sometimes even anger are common responses to the topic of climate change. We should all be encouraged to question our emotional response to this subject. To ask ourselves why we want to disengage? Why we feel angry? Why, when nearly every scientist in the world is telling us that this is going to be a primary determining factor in their future, or at least their children’s future, why we aren't more curious about this subject?
If there’s one thing I beg of you, take this seriously, as a minimum look into it. Please please, don’t be a Cornelius Fudge of climate change (or “climate fudger”). If it’s not already, question why learning more about this issue isn’t high on your list of priorities.
The biggest challenge with climate change, in my opinion, is getting enough people to take this seriously and to take action, when they don’t want to believe we're heading for trouble. This is what we do... but there has to be a way to fix it.