Key Takeaways:
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Most of us are optimists (around 80%) and we think that's generally a good thing.
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However, often our optimism can result in complacency, meaning we take too little action in the build up to a crisis (resulting in unwanted outcomes that could have been avoided).
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Optimism is also a key ingredient in success and can play a vital part in the solution to climate change when combined with action (i.e. we need optimism).
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Optimism is part of the problem & solution to climate change...
Generally, humans are optimistic. It’s a well studied field within Psychology and according to this TED talk optimism bias exists in around 80% of us, causing us to overestimate positive events occurring in our lives and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. For example, we may underestimate our chances of getting cancer and overestimate the chances of victory for our favourite football team.
From an evolutionary perspective that makes sense… if our ancestors, when confronted by a saber-tooth, believed they could escape it, then they’d probably try harder and that would increase their chances of survival (which is a good thing). The problem comes when we project that optimism into the future.
In the previous post we talked about a lack of action in the build up to disaster being driven by this desire not to believe we’re heading for trouble and optimism is simply the flip side of the same coin. We have a strong belief that things will turn out okay and often that stops us from responding to threats with an appropriate level of action. In the last post I mentioned the Second World War, The Fall of Rome, failing businesses and the Financial Crash but over-optimism exacerbates so many disasters, with the most recent example being the Coronavirus Pandemic. A large-scale pandemic was predicted by many, with Bill Gates famously warning of this in his 2015 talk “The next outbreak? We’re not ready”.
I believe this is one of our most fundamental flaws as human beings but I also believe there must be a solution to this problem. There has to be a way that we can consciously counter this bias.
To be clear, I am all for optimism, and we are going to need it. It means we’re less likely to give up, more likely to overcome challenges and ultimately more likely to survive.
But as humans, we have to get better at identifying when optimism is toxic to achieving our end goals and when it plays a vital part of the solution. Recognising whether unwarranted over optimism is leading us down a path of inaction that sets us up for disaster, or if it’s driving positive change and innovation in the face of adversity, will be key to solving this crisis.
Recognition + optimism + action = the path to success
Recognition + over optimism + inaction = let’s not go there
If you believe that you, personally, could be affected by climate change, then you’re more likely to send that email to your MP demanding change, to chip away over time at building sustainable habits or to move your pension into companies that are driving positive change.
We should be encouraging people to challenge their optimism. To question their belief that things will turn out okay for them and their loved ones if we continue to fall short of scientific advice. To ask ourselves if our optimism is holding us back from taking action on climate change, whilst also encouraging the type that best sets us up for success and prevents us from giving up. I wholeheartedly believe it’s possible to build a better future for ourselves but we must back up our optimism with action.
Generally, humans are optimistic. It’s a well studied field within Psychology and according to this TED talk optimism bias exists in around 80% of us, causing us to overestimate positive events occurring in our lives and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. For example, we may underestimate our chances of getting cancer and overestimate the chances of victory for our favourite football team.
From an evolutionary perspective that makes sense… if our ancestors, when confronted by a saber-tooth, believed they could escape it, then they’d probably try harder and that would increase their chances of survival (which is a good thing). The problem comes when we project that optimism into the future.
In the previous post we talked about a lack of action in the build up to disaster being driven by this desire not to believe we’re heading for trouble and optimism is simply the flip side of the same coin. We have a strong belief that things will turn out okay and often that stops us from responding to threats with an appropriate level of action. In the last post I mentioned the Second World War, The Fall of Rome, failing businesses and the Financial Crash but over-optimism exacerbates so many disasters, with the most recent example being the Coronavirus Pandemic. A large-scale pandemic was predicted by many, with Bill Gates famously warning of this in his 2015 talk “The next outbreak? We’re not ready”.
I believe this is one of our most fundamental flaws as human beings but I also believe there must be a solution to this problem. There has to be a way that we can consciously counter this bias.
To be clear, I am all for optimism, and we are going to need it. It means we’re less likely to give up, more likely to overcome challenges and ultimately more likely to survive.
But as humans, we have to get better at identifying when optimism is toxic to achieving our end goals and when it plays a vital part of the solution. Recognising whether unwarranted over optimism is leading us down a path of inaction that sets us up for disaster, or if it’s driving positive change and innovation in the face of adversity, will be key to solving this crisis.
Recognition + optimism + action = the path to success
Recognition + over optimism + inaction = let’s not go there
If you believe that you, personally, could be affected by climate change, then you’re more likely to send that email to your MP demanding change, to chip away over time at building sustainable habits or to move your pension into companies that are driving positive change.
We should be encouraging people to challenge their optimism. To question their belief that things will turn out okay for them and their loved ones if we continue to fall short of scientific advice. To ask ourselves if our optimism is holding us back from taking action on climate change, whilst also encouraging the type that best sets us up for success and prevents us from giving up. I wholeheartedly believe it’s possible to build a better future for ourselves but we must back up our optimism with action.